Buried Gems — nextfest

The demos the crowd missed: peak community followers ≤200 (an absolute demand proxy — genuinely under-discovered, not just outside the top of a big field), with a real reception sample (≥10 demo reviews). 346 qualify — 288 still unsigned (self-published = an acquisition target), 58 already signed.

§ A — Buried Gems shortlist (top 25)

1. Stop and Smell the Flowers · composite 77.4

UNSIGNED · Collectathon · 47 followers · wishlist #1844 · confidence: low

• Engagement 89.6 — median 2.483h (2.61× its lane)
• Reception 85.7 — 23 demo reviews, 86% (low confidence)
• Velocity 64.1 — climbed 1048 places
• Novelty 50 — Standard

2. Eternal Sword Tomb · composite 77.1

UNSIGNED · Xianxia · 94 followers · wishlist #1351 · confidence: low

• Engagement 98.5 — median 6.417h (6.75× its lane)
• Reception 69.4 — 29 demo reviews, 69% (low confidence)
• Velocity 46.1 — climbed 533 places
• Novelty 84 — High
• xCCU — earned 2.89× the attention its day-0 audience predicted (z=+1.2, CCU 54 vs ~18 expected)

3. One Last Hand · composite 74.2

UNSIGNED · Party Game · 106 followers · wishlist #1002 · confidence: low

• Engagement 88.2 — median 2.325h (2.45× its lane)
• Reception 74.2 — 18 demo reviews, 74% (low confidence)
• Velocity 71.7 — climbed 577 places
• Novelty 45 — Standard
• xCCU — earned 10.42× the attention its day-0 audience predicted (z=+2.7, CCU 53 vs ~4 expected)

4. The Last Errant · composite 73.5

UNSIGNED · Strategy · 28 followers · wishlist #2723 · confidence: low

• Engagement 99.1 — median 5.2h (4.02× its lane)
• Reception 81.6 — 17 demo reviews, 82% (low confidence)
• Velocity 48.6 — climbed 1567 places
• Novelty 31 — Low
• xCCU — earned 1.48× the attention its day-0 audience predicted (z=+0.5, CCU 5 vs ~3 expected)

5. Watch Yo Plane · composite 73.5

UNSIGNED · Casual · 25 followers · wishlist #1652 · confidence: low

• Engagement 89.0 — median 1.817h (2.27× its lane)
• Reception 64.0 — 16 demo reviews, 64% (low confidence)
• Velocity 100.0 — climbed 2754 places
• Novelty 21 — Low
• xCCU — earned 15.35× the attention its day-0 audience predicted (z=+3.1, CCU 40 vs ~2 expected)

6. diffiCULT · composite 72.6

UNSIGNED · RPG · 58 followers · wishlist #1769 · confidence: low

• Engagement 80.4 — median 2.875h (3.05× its lane)
• Reception 80.6 — 16 demo reviews, 81% (low confidence)
• Velocity 39.6 — climbed 631 places
• Novelty 82 — High
• xCCU — earned 2.24× the attention its day-0 audience predicted (z=+0.9, CCU 8 vs ~3 expected)

7. Click Roulette · composite 72.4

UNSIGNED · Incremental · 31 followers · wishlist #1454 · confidence: high

• Engagement 98.6 — median 7.35h (8.65× its lane)
• Reception 88.9 — 227 demo reviews, 89% (high confidence)
• Velocity 29.8 — climbed 715 places
• Novelty 35 — Low
• xCCU — earned 286.83× the attention its day-0 audience predicted (z=+6.5, CCU 1699 vs ~5 expected)

8. PredaDeck · composite 71.5

UNSIGNED · Education · 14 followers · wishlist #3577 · confidence: low

• Engagement 89.0 — median 2.383h (2.51× its lane)
• Reception 74.1 — 11 demo reviews, 74% (low confidence)
• Velocity 63.5 — climbed 1909 places
• Novelty 36 — Low

9. Warding Witches · composite 70.8

SIGNED · Headup · Bullet Hell · 192 followers · wishlist #1054 · confidence: low

• Engagement 81.2 — median 1.408h (1.92× its lane)
• Reception 77.2 — 13 demo reviews, 77% (low confidence)
• Velocity 83.4 — climbed 820 places
• Novelty 17 — Low

10. Bibidi Bibidi! · composite 70.4

UNSIGNED · Roguelike Deckbuilder · 136 followers · wishlist #1166 · confidence: low

• Engagement 59.1 — median 1.517h (1.29× its lane)
• Reception 87.9 — 28 demo reviews, 88% (low confidence)
• Velocity 100.0 — climbed 960 places
• Novelty 22 — Low
• xCCU — earned 1.14× the attention its day-0 audience predicted (z=+0.1, CCU 8 vs ~7 expected)

11. Heritage · composite 70.3

UNSIGNED · Auto Battler · 121 followers · wishlist #1221 · confidence: low · quietly big in Portuguese (BR) (52%)

• Engagement 82.1 — median 1.85h (1.95× its lane)
• Reception 71.3 — 36 demo reviews, 71% (low confidence)
• Velocity 36.5 — climbed 971 places
• Novelty 86 — High

12. Ribbit Rogue · composite 70.2

UNSIGNED · Card Battler · 194 followers · wishlist #821 · confidence: low

• Engagement 72.8 — median 1.433h (1.51× its lane)
• Reception 69.0 — 24 demo reviews, 69% (low confidence)
• Velocity 100.0 — climbed 878 places
• Novelty 27 — Low
• xCCU — earned 3.5× the attention its day-0 audience predicted (z=+1.4, CCU 27 vs ~7 expected)

13. Game of Rebirth · composite 69.0

UNSIGNED · Adventure · 153 followers · wishlist #1224 · confidence: low

• Engagement 88.3 — median 1.783h (1.75× its lane)
• Reception 77.3 — 21 demo reviews, 77% (low confidence)
• Velocity 69.3 — climbed 820 places
• Novelty 7 — Low
• xCCU — earned 1.19× the attention its day-0 audience predicted (z=+0.2, CCU 12 vs ~10 expected)

14. Cold Case: The Red Dress Murder · composite 67.5

UNSIGNED · 1990's · 97 followers · wishlist #946 · confidence: low

• Engagement 91.5 — median 2.617h (2.75× its lane)
• Reception 79.6 — 15 demo reviews, 80% (low confidence)
• Velocity 37.8 — climbed 432 places
• Novelty 27 — Low
• xCCU — earned 3.52× the attention its day-0 audience predicted (z=+1.4, CCU 14 vs ~3 expected)

15. Void Pachinko · composite 67.2

SIGNED · 2 Left Thumbs · Incremental · 196 followers · wishlist #729 · confidence: low

• Engagement 64.9 — median 0.958h (1.13× its lane)
• Reception 87.1 — 26 demo reviews, 87% (low confidence)
• Velocity 81.3 — climbed 1648 places
• Novelty 14 — Low

16. Decked Out · composite 66.7

UNSIGNED · Action Roguelike · 185 followers · wishlist #779 · confidence: low

• Engagement 61.7 — median 1.133h (1.11× its lane)
• Reception 79.6 — 15 demo reviews, 80% (low confidence)
• Velocity 94.0 — climbed 916 places
• Novelty 16 — Low

17. Something to Drink? · composite 66.6

UNSIGNED · Simulation · 87 followers · wishlist #1196 · confidence: low

• Engagement 90.3 — median 1.808h (2.21× its lane)
• Reception 85.7 — 23 demo reviews, 86% (low confidence)
• Velocity 39.9 — climbed 318 places
• Novelty 9 — Low

18. 放置斩魔录 · composite 66.5

UNSIGNED · RPG · 200 followers · wishlist never charted · confidence: low · quietly big in Chinese (Simpl.) (93%)

• Engagement 94.6 — median 8.783h (9.32× its lane)
• Reception 83.8 — 31 demo reviews, 84% (low confidence)
• Velocity 0.0 — climbed 0 places (flat/not charting)
• Novelty 55 — Standard

19. Pegs X Stickers · composite 66.2

UNSIGNED · Strategy · 144 followers · wishlist #775 · confidence: low

• Engagement 67.0 — median 1.758h (1.36× its lane)
• Reception 71.7 — 16 demo reviews, 72% (low confidence)
• Velocity 94.1 — climbed 1778 places
• Novelty 16 — Low

20. How to Grow Your Sausage · composite 65.6

UNSIGNED · Casual · 153 followers · wishlist #610 · confidence: low

• Engagement 99.0 — median 2.55h (3.19× its lane)
• Reception 75.7 — 12 demo reviews, 76% (low confidence)
• Velocity 0.0 — climbed -424 places (flat/not charting)
• Novelty 55 — Standard
• xCCU — earned 1.25× the attention its day-0 audience predicted (z=+0.2, CCU 20 vs ~16 expected)

21. MAGE: Mega Awesome Gregarious Encounters · composite 65.6

UNSIGNED · Party Game · 95 followers · wishlist #1000 · confidence: low

• Engagement 37.9 — median 0.783h (0.82× its lane)
• Reception 88.6 — 30 demo reviews, 89% (low confidence)
• Velocity 100.0 — climbed 820 places
• Novelty 38 — Standard
• xCCU — earned 4.2× the attention its day-0 audience predicted (z=+1.6, CCU 17 vs ~3 expected)

22. Lost Lures · composite 65.1

SIGNED · Bonus Stage Publishing · Fishing · 127 followers · wishlist #1127 · confidence: low

• Engagement 88.9 — median 2.375h (2.5× its lane)
• Reception 64.0 — 16 demo reviews, 64% (low confidence)
• Velocity 54.6 — climbed 561 places
• Novelty 26 — Low
• xCCU — earned 3.14× the attention its day-0 audience predicted (z=+1.3, CCU 23 vs ~7 expected)

23. Drillbound · composite 64.9

UNSIGNED · Incremental · 177 followers · wishlist #748 · confidence: low · quietly big in Chinese (Simpl.) (45%)

• Engagement 60.8 — median 0.917h (1.08× its lane)
• Reception 89.0 — 31 demo reviews, 89% (low confidence)
• Velocity 55.6 — climbed 520 places
• Novelty 39 — Standard
• xCCU — earned 1.48× the attention its day-0 audience predicted (z=+0.5, CCU 12 vs ~8 expected)

24. FlockSol · composite 64.9

UNSIGNED · Action · 25 followers · wishlist #2106 · confidence: low

• Engagement 95.2 — median 1.7h (2.02× its lane)
• Reception 77.2 — 13 demo reviews, 77% (low confidence)
• Velocity 30.0 — climbed 573 places
• Novelty 16 — Low
• xCCU — earned 1.14× the attention its day-0 audience predicted (z=+0.1, CCU 4 vs ~3 expected)

25. Retail Rivals · composite 64.9

UNSIGNED · Simulation · 42 followers · wishlist #1754 · confidence: medium · quietly big in German (19%)

• Engagement 87.3 — median 1.758h (2.15× its lane)
• Reception 90.6 — 56 demo reviews, 91% (medium confidence)
• Velocity 0.0 — climbed -25 places (flat/not charting)
• Novelty 48 — Standard
• xCCU — earned 2.56× the attention its day-0 audience predicted (z=+1.1, CCU 14 vs ~5 expected)

§ B — The Residual (loved at deep wishlist rank, ≥#1500)

Highest engagement/reception at the deepest ABSOLUTE wishlist rank — loved by the few who found them, invisible to the charts.

game	wishlist rank	followers	composite	reception	median play	reviews
Stop and Smell the Flowers	#1844	47	77.4	86%	2.5h	23
The Last Errant	#2723	28	73.5	82%	5.2h	17
Watch Yo Plane	#1652	25	73.5	64%	1.8h	16
diffiCULT	#1769	58	72.6	81%	2.9h	16
PredaDeck	#3577	14	71.5	74%	2.4h	11
FlockSol	#2106	25	64.9	77%	1.7h	13
Retail Rivals	#1754	42	64.9	91%	1.8h	56
Mind Match	#2583	24	63.9	88%	2.8h	28
Horse & Horse	#1759	42	63.3	77%	1.5h	13
Rombykon	#1979	22	62.0	86%	1.7h	23
决战-勋章	#3232	12	61.6	72%	1.7h	10
All You Can FISH!	#1690	37	61.3	74%	2.0h	11
Dorts : A Darts Roguelike	#1545	30	61.3	76%	1.6h	12
Tsuki Journey	#1540	71	61.1	77%	22.5h	13
Lost Exit	#2084	44	59.7	49%	1.3h	10

§ C — Lane standouts (top 3 per lane)

The buried leaders of each substantive genre lane (≥6 qualifiers) — 47 games across 13 lanes + a pooled thin-lane cut, curated from the 346 qualifiers.

Strategy (3)

• The Last Errant — 🔓 unsigned · composite 73.5 · 28 foll · wishlist #2723 · 82% / 17 reviews · 5.2h (4.02× lane) · low
• Pegs X Stickers — 🔓 unsigned · composite 66.2 · 144 foll · wishlist #775 · 72% / 16 reviews · 1.8h (1.36× lane) · low
• The Swashbugglers — 🔓 unsigned · composite 64.2 · 100 foll · wishlist #1286 · 72% / 10 reviews · 1.5h (1.14× lane) · low

Casual (3)

• Watch Yo Plane — 🔓 unsigned · composite 73.5 · 25 foll · wishlist #1652 · 64% / 16 reviews · 1.8h (2.27× lane) · low
• How to Grow Your Sausage — 🔓 unsigned · composite 65.6 · 153 foll · wishlist #610 · 76% / 12 reviews · 2.5h (3.19× lane) · low
• Tiny Capsule Collector — 🔓 unsigned · composite 64.4 · 93 foll · wishlist #917 · 81% / 16 reviews · 2.2h (2.81× lane) · low

RPG (3)

• diffiCULT — 🔓 unsigned · composite 72.6 · 58 foll · wishlist #1769 · 81% / 16 reviews · 2.9h (3.05× lane) · low
• 放置斩魔录 — 🔓 unsigned · composite 66.5 · 200 foll · wishlist never charted · 84% / 31 reviews · 8.8h (9.32× lane) · low
• Survivor's Notes — 🔓 unsigned · composite 53.2 · no group · wishlist #1616 · 89% / 89 reviews · 1.2h (1.26× lane) · medium

Incremental (3)

• Click Roulette — 🔓 unsigned · composite 72.4 · 31 foll · wishlist #1454 · 89% / 227 reviews · 7.3h (8.65× lane) · high
• Void Pachinko — 🔒 2 Left Thumbs · composite 67.2 · 196 foll · wishlist #729 · 87% / 26 reviews · 1.0h (1.13× lane) · low
• Drillbound — 🔓 unsigned · composite 64.9 · 177 foll · wishlist #748 · 89% / 31 reviews · 0.9h (1.08× lane) · low

Adventure (3)

• Game of Rebirth — 🔓 unsigned · composite 69.0 · 153 foll · wishlist #1224 · 77% / 21 reviews · 1.8h (1.75× lane) · low
• The Last Shot: Underworld — 🔒 Nelset · composite 57.1 · 149 foll · wishlist #1895 · 93% / 50 reviews · 1.4h (1.33× lane) · medium
• The Solyani's Code — 🔓 unsigned · composite 54.5 · no group · wishlist #2362 · 78% / 14 reviews · 1.4h (1.35× lane) · low

Action Roguelike (3)

• Decked Out — 🔓 unsigned · composite 66.7 · 185 foll · wishlist #779 · 80% / 15 reviews · 1.1h (1.11× lane) · low
• Deck of Potential — 🔓 unsigned · composite 64.4 · 127 foll · wishlist #995 · 65% / 21 reviews · 1.0h (1.01× lane) · low
• Tribe Quest — 🔓 unsigned · composite 55.3 · 73 foll · wishlist #1420 · 80% / 15 reviews · 1.4h (1.37× lane) · low

Simulation (3)

• Something to Drink? — 🔓 unsigned · composite 66.6 · 87 foll · wishlist #1196 · 86% / 23 reviews · 1.8h (2.21× lane) · low
• Retail Rivals — 🔓 unsigned · composite 64.9 · 42 foll · wishlist #1754 · 91% / 56 reviews · 1.8h (2.15× lane) · medium
• Tsuki Journey — 🔒 The Carrot Studio · composite 61.1 · 71 foll · wishlist #1540 · 77% / 13 reviews · 22.5h (27.54× lane) · low

Action (3)

• FlockSol — 🔓 unsigned · composite 64.9 · 25 foll · wishlist #2106 · 77% / 13 reviews · 1.7h (2.02× lane) · low
• Horse & Horse — 🔓 unsigned · composite 63.3 · 42 foll · wishlist #1759 · 77% / 13 reviews · 1.5h (1.76× lane) · low
• Bring It — 🔒 NAISU · composite 58.0 · 63 foll · wishlist #1449 · 77% / 27 reviews · 1.3h (1.58× lane) · low

Puzzle (3)

• Prophet Margin — 🔓 unsigned · composite 64.8 · 141 foll · wishlist #1017 · 82% / 17 reviews · 3.2h (3.34× lane) · low
• Sophia's Path — 🔓 unsigned · composite 57.1 · 98 foll · wishlist #1558 · 88% / 27 reviews · 0.9h (0.96× lane) · low
• AstroScaper — 🔓 unsigned · composite 56.3 · 132 foll · wishlist #1261 · 77% / 21 reviews · 1.8h (1.92× lane) · low

Horror (3)

• Loot Gobblin' Together — 🔓 unsigned · composite 62.4 · 74 foll · wishlist #1334 · 87% / 26 reviews · 2.0h (2.39× lane) · low
• Lost Exit — 🔓 unsigned · composite 59.7 · 44 foll · wishlist #2084 · 49% / 10 reviews · 1.3h (1.52× lane) · low
• 7Years — 🔓 unsigned · composite 59.0 · 185 foll · wishlist #1086 · 81% / 16 reviews · 2.5h (2.86× lane) · low

Visual Novel (3)

• Neko Diary🐾 猫愿日记 — 🔒 LoveStoryProject · composite 56.7 · 164 foll · wishlist never charted · 89% / 61 reviews · 1.7h (1.84× lane) · medium
• Is the Vat Utopia or Dystopia? — 🔓 unsigned · composite 56.1 · 100 foll · wishlist never charted · 86% / 24 reviews · 1.4h (1.55× lane) · low
• Gossip & Potions: Tales from the Witch Shop — 🔓 unsigned · composite 48.3 · 132 foll · wishlist #1170 · 72% / 10 reviews · 0.8h (0.88× lane) · low

Tower Defense (3)

• Don't Wake the Queen — 🔓 unsigned · composite 55.8 · 62 foll · wishlist #1190 · 77% / 13 reviews · 1.6h (1.52× lane) · low
• Abyss Horde — 🔓 unsigned · composite 51.0 · 106 foll · wishlist #993 · 47% / 12 reviews · 2.8h (2.6× lane) · low
• Crystals Bureau — 🔓 unsigned · composite 48.6 · 39 foll · wishlist #1988 · 79% / 23 reviews · 1.5h (1.43× lane) · low

Idler (3)

• Minimon: Tiny Idle Tactics — 🔓 unsigned · composite 55.7 · 27 foll · wishlist #2408 · 89% / 32 reviews · 1.9h (1.05× lane) · low
• UNHUMAN — 🔓 unsigned · composite 49.0 · 80 foll · wishlist #1423 · 62% / 11 reviews · 2.4h (1.28× lane) · low
• Goal Idle — 🔓 unsigned · composite 48.3 · 60 foll · wishlist #1429 · 80% / 24 reviews · 0.7h (0.38× lane) · low

Other (thin lanes, pooled top 8)

• Stop and Smell the Flowers [Collectathon] — 🔓 unsigned · composite 77.4 · 47 foll · wishlist #1844 · 86% / 23 reviews · 2.5h (2.61× lane) · low
• Eternal Sword Tomb [Xianxia] — 🔓 unsigned · composite 77.1 · 94 foll · wishlist #1351 · 69% / 29 reviews · 6.4h (6.75× lane) · low
• One Last Hand [Party Game] — 🔓 unsigned · composite 74.2 · 106 foll · wishlist #1002 · 74% / 18 reviews · 2.3h (2.45× lane) · low
• PredaDeck [Education] — 🔓 unsigned · composite 71.5 · 14 foll · wishlist #3577 · 74% / 11 reviews · 2.4h (2.51× lane) · low
• Warding Witches [Bullet Hell] — 🔒 Headup · composite 70.8 · 192 foll · wishlist #1054 · 77% / 13 reviews · 1.4h (1.92× lane) · low
• Bibidi Bibidi! [Roguelike Deckbuilder] — 🔓 unsigned · composite 70.4 · 136 foll · wishlist #1166 · 88% / 28 reviews · 1.5h (1.29× lane) · low
• Heritage [Auto Battler] — 🔓 unsigned · composite 70.3 · 121 foll · wishlist #1221 · 71% / 36 reviews · 1.9h (1.95× lane) · low
• Ribbit Rogue [Card Battler] — 🔓 unsigned · composite 70.2 · 194 foll · wishlist #821 · 69% / 24 reviews · 1.4h (1.51× lane) · low

§ D — Region tells (review-language skew)

Demos whose review-language mix sits far above the fest baseline (English 54% / Chinese 15% / Russian 8% …) — a quiet regional base an English-first scout misses. Ranked by how far above baseline (lift), so a surprising Turkish/French/Korean pocket leads, not the many Chinese-market titles whose 100% is only ~6× the 15% baseline. Review language is opt-in and is NOT buyer geography — a language-mix read only.

game	over-indexes in	share	reviews	vs baseline	in buried set
Risen Blade	Thai	34%	12/35	193×	buried
Mysarium	Italian	46%	26/56	106×	—
Endless Rails	Hungarian	13%	12/90	95×	—
Lazy Witch's Factory	Japanese	69%	62/89	42×	—
Mayor Quake	Turkish	100%	46/46	39×	buried/unsigned
Deadline Savior	Chinese (Trad.)	53%	22/41	38×	—
Kitty Burger	Turkish	92%	93/101	36×	—
Anomaly President	Turkish	88%	366/413	35×	—
Finding Polka	Japanese	54%	17/31	33×	—
Tileburg	French	94%	131/139	32×	—
Die Deep	Chinese (Trad.)	41%	18/43	29×	—
Company is watching	French	85%	29/34	29×	buried/unsigned
Ringash	Chinese (Trad.)	39%	27/69	28×	—
FreeStyle Football 2	Korean	55%	180/322	27×	—
3258590	Polish	25%	8/32	24×	—
Pimbolas	Portuguese (BR)	76%	36/47	23×	—
Waifu Pogo Club	Turkish	57%	24/42	22×	buried
Witch the Showdown	Japanese	35%	18/51	21×	—
After the Wane	French	60%	18/30	21×	—
Estancia Protocol Zero	Spanish (Spain)	58%	33/56	20×	—

§ E — Watchlist: "heating up, not yet arrived"

Demos whose live concurrent players were still climbing — and near their own peak — at fest close, while small enough not to have arrived (peak 15–800 CCU). The LEADING signal: who to track into launch. 59 flagged, 16 of them buried & unsigned (the prime watch). This needs the live-CCU slope across the fest window — a post-fest peak figure can't reconstruct who was still climbing at close.

game	trajectory	peak CCU	growth	held	xCCU z	status	demo reviews
Dirt Clicker	▁▂▂▂▂▂▃█	320	3.3×	100%	+4.0	🔓 buried+unsigned	—
Cataclysm Era	▁▄▄▄▅▅▇█	192	2.2×	100%	+3.9	has audience	40 / 40%
Don’t Pull Me!	▁▂▁▁▁▂▅█	121	4.9×	100%	+3.6	🔓 buried+unsigned	8 (few)
OK👍 Boomer	▂▂▄▄▅▇█▆	120	3.0×	83%	+3.1	🔒 GameDev.ist	33 / 53%
Summer at Smile Café	▃▃▅▅▅▆█▇	119	2.1×	93%	+3.1	🔒 Mango Party, Mango Party News	15 / 70%
Lepidarium	▂▃▃▄▅█▇▇	72	2.9×	89%	+2.9	🔓 buried+unsigned	10 / 49%
Crownhold	▁▁▅▅█▇▅▆	69	2.8×	77%	+2.9	has audience	—
Func Key	▁▁▂▂▅▇█▆	103	7.0×	74%	+2.9	🔓 buried+unsigned	34 / 77%
Flowers and Deities	▅▄▆█▇▇▇▅	58	1.3×	71%	+2.9	🔒 IGA Studio	—
One Last Hand	▁▁▁▁▁▄▄█	120	14.5×	100%	+2.7	🔓 buried+unsigned	18 / 74%
HAUNTMATES	▁▁▄▅▆▇█▆	40	4.9×	80%	+2.6	🔓 buried+unsigned	9 (few)
Pat the Cat	▂▂▂▃▃▆▇█	224	4.4×	100%	+2.6	has audience	—
Wheel Make It	▁▁▁▁▁▁▂█	319	4.4×	100%	+2.4	🔒 2 Left Thumbs	33 / 80%
Deer & Boy	▄▄▄▅▅▇█▇	106	1.9×	96%	+2.2	🔒 Dear Villagers	—
Loser Got Isekai’d – Sex, Side Jobs, and Odd Tasks	▂▂▃▂▂▄▄█	63	2.3×	100%	+2.0	🔒 072 Project	—
Packed Lair	▂▃▃▃▃▂█▆	94	2.2×	83%	+2.0	🔒 Mystic Forge	26 / 58%
Auto Dungeon:Idle Adventure	▂▂▂▂▄▆▇█	57	3.9×	100%	+1.9	🔓 buried+unsigned	4 (few)
Trashy Cashy	▂▄▅▄▄█▇▆	103	1.9×	83%	+1.9	has audience	—
Barfender	▃▃▅▃▄▄▄█	61	1.5×	100%	+1.9	has audience	—
The First Million	▃▄▅▅▅█▇▆	49	2.0×	80%	+1.9	has audience	10 / 40%

xCCU — earned vs. expected attention

A pre-registered regression predicts each demo's fest CCU from its day-0 exposure (followers, Discord/Reddit/YouTube, trailer reach, pre-fest CCU…). The residual is what the game earned ABOVE what its pre-existing audience predicted — so a no-name punching up rises, and a brand coasting on hype doesn't. Never causal, never a quality verdict.

Prime discoveries — buried, unsigned, AND overperforming

The intersection: under-discovered, still available, and earned more attention than their audience predicted. The strongest sign-this signal this data produces.

• Click Roulette — 286.83× expected (z=+6.5), 1699 CCU · 31 followers · 89% / 227 reviews · unsigned · organic — no notable Twitch

Overperformers (top 15, z CI clear of 0)

Twitch column = peak viewers + whether the CCU actually TRACKED the streams (coupling r). High r = a real stream event; blank or decoupled = organic crowd that merely got streamed (e.g. IRON NEST: 15k viewers but r=−0.21, CCU never moved with them).

game	CCU	expected	ratio	z [95% CI]	day-0 followers	Twitch (peak · r)	status
BOMBANANA!	16666	10	1569.37×	+8.4 [+8.0,+9.0]	—	—	has audience
Click Roulette	1699	5	286.83×	+6.5 [+6.1,+7.0]	2	—	buried+unsigned
Minesweeper: Next-Gen	2625	8	283.36×	+6.5 [+6.1,+6.9]	—	1,621 · r=+0.97 · coupled	has audience
Pizza House Simulator🍕	2345	20	113.78×	+5.4 [+5.1,+5.8]	475	—	has audience
Waifu Pogo Club	980	8	104.08×	+5.3 [+5.0,+5.7]	—	324 · r=+0.02 · organic	buried
Deskrawl: Idle ARPG	2013	19	102.06×	+5.3 [+5.0,+5.7]	592	—	has audience
IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator	14303	150	94.88×	+5.2 [+4.5,+6.0]	23592	15,206 · r=-0.21 · organic	has audience
Order of the Sinking Star	5016	87	56.82×	+4.6 [+4.2,+5.1]	6966	4,767 · r=+0.63 · coupled	has audience
Nomad Drive	1724	32	52.43×	+4.5 [+4.2,+4.9]	4419	3,091 · r=+0.18 · organic	has audience
Train45	372	6	51.18×	+4.5 [+4.2,+4.9]	—	—	has audience
GrassChopper	1284	34	36.7×	+4.1 [+3.9,+4.4]	116	—	has audience
Night Blood W : Cutthroat Wolf	322	8	34.72×	+4.1 [+3.8,+4.4]	345	578 · r n/a · ?	has audience
Lifeguard Holic	209	5	32.86×	+4.0 [+3.7,+4.3]	—	—	has audience
Cycho	314	9	31.17×	+3.9 [+3.7,+4.2]	337	—	has audience
Bring It	164	4	29.99×	+3.9 [+3.7,+4.2]	53	—	buried

Hyped flops (top 12, big audience — nobody came)

Equal prominence by design: predicted to draw a crowd, undershot with the CI clear of zero. Nobody else publishes this tail. Coupling r: a stream-coupled flop is doubly hollow — its already-thin crowd was borrowed from streamers, not organic (Mortal Shell II r=+0.72).

game	CCU	expected	z [95% CI]	day-0 followers	coupling
Car Wash Simulator	14	309	-3.5 [-3.8,-3.2]	6435	—
Mortal Shell II	1509	17473	-2.8 [-3.5,-2.1]	30109	r=+0.72 ⚠ doubly hollow
Medieval Juice Crafter	14	145	-2.6 [-3.0,-2.2]	—	r=+0.02
Hollow Home	23	206	-2.5 [-2.8,-2.1]	6127	r=+0.29
Valor Mortis	527	4490	-2.5 [-3.1,-1.9]	29860	r=+0.57 ⚠ doubly hollow
SPRAWL zero	91	734	-2.4 [-2.6,-2.2]	4254	r=+0.10
Brigador Killers	72	569	-2.4 [-2.6,-2.1]	9272	r=+0.36
Stackmon	35	268	-2.3 [-2.7,-2.0]	510	r=+0.39
Enginefall	1597	11433	-2.2 [-3.4,-1.1]	27622	r=+0.85 ⚠ doubly hollow
Airport Contraband	10	76	-2.2 [-2.4,-2.0]	4982	r=+0.66 ⚠ doubly hollow
TOEM 2	25	179	-2.2 [-2.4,-2.0]	3112	r=+0.17
Milki Delivery	47	326	-2.2 [-2.4,-2.0]	2328	r=+0.18

Honesty box

• Playtime is among reviewers only (self-selected) and genre-normalized (within-lane percentile).
• Reception is fan-self-selected → upward-biased; Wilson lower bound tempers small samples.
• The composite is our proxy, not a demo→wishlist attachment rate.
• No wishlist counts, no sales conversion, no cross-play — not our data, not faked.
• Watchlist (§E) is as of fest close — CCU loses the fest spotlight after, so it's a track-these lead, not a forecast; the last 1–2 fest days carry a mild fest-wide decline, so a held-flat trajectory is a win.
• xCCU is exposure-adjusted, not causal — it says a game drew more/fewer players than its day-0 audience predicts, never why or whether it's good. The ratio is unstable when expected CCU is tiny; trust the z and its bootstrap CI, not the headline multiple.
• Twitch judges stream-DRIVEN vs merely streamed by whether a game's CCU tracked its Twitch over the fest (within-game coupling r), NOT a static peak ratio — which falsely flags discoveries that attracted big streamers. IRON NEST is the cautionary case: 15k Twitch viewers (lirik et al.) but r=−0.21 and rock-stable CCU → an organic crowd that got streamed, not a stream event.